The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell again on Friday, slipping below the 46,800 level for the first time in nearly three weeks before clawing back to flat on the day. A pullback in AI-related stocks, coupled with disappointing consumer‐sentiment readings, weighed on both investment and spending outlooks. The release of the November U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report was postponed due to the ongoing government shutdown—now the longest in American history—forcing investors to rely on patchy private data and leaving key inflation and jobs figures in doubt.
US Senate Democrats advanced a “minibus” funding bill to reopen the government, even offering to suspend Affordable Care Act mandates for a year, but House Republicans rejected it outright. They insist on blocking federal services unless Democrats agree to measures that would cut critical health coverage for 15 to 40 million Americans. Meanwhile, Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits have been suspended—the first time SNAP has ever been halted during a shutdown. SNAP provides food assistance to over 9 percent of U.S. households, 80 percent of which include children. The Trump administration has wavered daily on SNAP’s fate, alternately promising full, partial, or no funding.
Consumer Sentiment Takes a Hit
The University of Michigan’s preliminary November Consumer Sentiment survey showed households growing sharply more pessimistic. The headline Sentiment Index dropped to 50.3 from 53.6, while the Expectations Index fell to 49 from 50.3—both hovering near record lows. Consumers cited weakening job, income, and hiring conditions, pointing to a more gloomy economic outlook despite higher‐income earners propping up overall spending.
One‐year inflation expectations edged up to 4.7 percent from 4.6 percent, even as five-year outlooks eased to 3.6 percent from 3.9 percent. This divergence suggests that worries are centering on near-term price pressures rather than long-run inflation.
Fed Data Paints a Similar Picture
The New York Fed’s October Consumer Expectations survey offered mildly cooler inflation readings but still conveyed a negative sentiment. One-year inflation expectations declined to 3.2 percent from 3.4 percent, and the five-year forecast held at 3.0 percent. Yet the report also noted that households view the labor market unfavorably, and perceptions of both current and future financial conditions deteriorated.
Shutdown Fallout Deepens
As the shutdown stretches into record territory, President Trump now presides over the two longest federal closures in U.S. history and holds the record for the most shutdowns overall. With official data unavailable, investors have turned to alternative sources. DataWeave’s retail‐price analysis shows average price increases of 5.5 percent at Target and 5.3 percent at Walmart—highlighting how headline inflation figures can mask steep, uneven price hikes that disproportionately hit lower-income families.
In response, President Trump has taken to social media to lambast critics—urging them to “STOP LYIN’”—and touting that his administration has “whipped” inflation. Ironically, in 2013 he tweeted that “a shutdown means the president is weak,” a stance he now appears to contradict.
