Gold (XAU/USD) climbed 0.64% during Friday’s North American session as the U.S. government shutdown wore on and investors leaned into safe-haven assets amid looming equity losses. At last check, bullion was trading around $4,002 after dipping to an intraday low near $3,974.
Bullion up 0.64% as risk aversion and Fed-cut bets build
Lingering uncertainty over the U.S. economy—underscored by the University of Michigan’s preliminary November Consumer Sentiment index hitting its weakest level since June 2022—has bolstered gold’s appeal. Households cited growing concerns about the shutdown’s impact on the broader economy, a theme that typically drives demand for non-yielding assets like gold. Year to date, bullion is up roughly 0.13%.
Signs of a cooling labor market added fuel to gold’s advance. The Challenger job-cut report for October, released Thursday, showed more than 150,000 planned layoffs—the biggest monthly total in over two decades. Meanwhile, traders are now pricing in about a 68% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, according to the Prime Market Terminal’s interest-rate probabilities tool.
Daily market movers
- The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) slipped 0.15% to 99.55, easing pressure on gold.
- The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield held steady around 4.085% after tumbling more than seven basis points on Thursday; real yields ticked up roughly two basis points to 1.805%, a slight drag on non-yielding bullion.
- Friday marked the 38th day of the U.S. federal shutdown, though prospects for reopening remain slim. Republican Senate leader John Thune’s proposed vote on a continuing resolution was swiftly rejected by House conservatives.
- White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett told CNN the shutdown is inflicting greater economic damage than anticipated, projecting a 1–1.5% drag on GDP this quarter.
- The New York Fed’s October consumer expectations survey showed one-year inflation forecasts easing from 3.4% to 3.2%, while three- and five-year outlooks held at 3.0% each.
- The University of Michigan’s November survey revealed sentiment sliding to 50.3 from 53.6, with one-year inflation expectations rising to 4.7% (from 4.6%) and five-year expectations retreating to 3.6% (from 3.9%).
- Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson cautioned that rate adjustments should be gradual as policy approaches neutrality, and he noted that the shutdown’s data outages warrant a meeting-by-meeting approach.
- World Gold Council data showed ETFs added 54.9 tonnes of gold in October—led by North America (+47.2 tonnes) and Asia (+44.8 tonnes)—while Europe recorded outflows of 37.4 tonnes.
Technical outlook: Bulls eye $4,082 next
Gold’s technical setup remains constructive so long as prices can hold above $4,000 on a daily close. The RSI is rising, signaling growing bullish momentum. A sustained break above $4,000 would open the door to the 20-day simple moving average near $4,082, and ultimately $4,100. Conversely, a slide below $4,000 exposes support at $3,950, with the October 28 low at $3,886 the next downside target.
