The Canadian dollar snapped a six-day slide on Friday, rallying against its U.S. counterpart after October’s jobs report beat forecasts by a wide margin. At the time of writing, USD/CAD was trading around 1.4064, down about 0.35% for the day.
Strong October payrolls underpin Loonie
- Statistics Canada reported a gain of 66,600 jobs in October, versus a consensus expectation for a 2,500-job drop and a 60,400 increase in September.
- The unemployment rate fell to 6.9% from 7.1%, and the participation rate inched up to 65.3% from 65.2%.
- Average hourly wages climbed 4.0% year-on-year (up from 3.6% in September), even as total hours worked dipped slightly due to strike activity.
- Job gains were broad-based, led by hiring in both services and the private sector, suggesting Canada’s labour market remains more resilient than many had anticipated.
Implications for the Bank of Canada
- The unexpectedly strong data bolster the BoC’s recent decision to pause its easing cycle after cutting its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% on October 29.
- BoC officials have signaled that the current policy rate is “about right” if inflation and growth evolve as expected.
- Markets are now pricing in a high probability of no further rate cuts in December, shifting focus toward upcoming inflation releases for clues on the next move.
U.S. data and dollar dynamics
- The University of Michigan’s preliminary November Consumer Sentiment index fell sharply to 50.3 from 53.6 (versus 53.2 expected), while the Expectations sub-index dropped to 49.0 from 50.3.
- One-year inflation expectations ticked up to 4.7% from 4.6%, and five-year expectations eased to 3.6% from 3.9%.
- The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) slid to a one-week low near 99.42, extending its third consecutive day of losses after briefly spiking to 100.36 on Wednesday. The softer greenback added further downward pressure on USD/CAD.
U.S. dollar performance today
Among the major currencies today, the U.S. dollar:
- Was weakest against the New Zealand dollar (down 0.54%)
- Declined versus the euro (–0.34%), Swiss franc (–0.34%), and pound sterling (–0.27%)
- Gained slightly against the yen (+0.05%)
Heat-map interpretation
The accompanying heat map displays each currency’s percentage change against every other. Rows represent the base currency; columns represent the quote currency. For instance, the cell at the intersection of the U.S. dollar row and Japanese yen column shows USD/JPY’s daily move.
