The US dollar gained ground in Wednesday’s Asian session, recovering from the previous day’s low near 97.90–97.85. The DXY index, which measures the greenback against a basket of peers, climbed toward 98.30 in the last hour, but meaningful upside remains limited amid widespread expectations of continued Fed dovishness.
Technically, the dollar’s inability to sustain momentum above the crucial 200-day simple moving average (SMA), followed by a drop below the 100-day SMA, favors the downside. Daily oscillators remain in negative territory and are far from oversold, suggesting that any rally may be treated as an opportunity to sell rather than buy.
Further bearish signals appear as the 100-day SMA flattens beneath a declining 200-day SMA, and price sits below both averages. The 100-day SMA near 98.63 now acts as immediate resistance. Meanwhile, the MACD remains below its signal line and under zero, though its shrinking negative histogram hints at fading bearish momentum. The RSI sits at 35—low but shy of oversold—with a slight uptick pointing to tentative stabilization.
Downside risk continues as long as price stays below these moving averages, with the 200-day SMA around 99.25 capping any rebound. The MACD’s position below zero and its contracting histogram reinforce the idea that bears still hold sway. The RSI would need to break above the 50 midpoint to confirm a stronger recovery. Only a sustained move above 99.25 would shift the medium-term outlook higher; failure to reclaim these moving-average levels would preserve the bearish bias.
