Commerzbank commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes that the US sanctions announced two weeks ago by President Trump against Russia’s two largest oil companies are now weighing on Moscow’s seaborne crude exports.
According to Bloomberg data, shipments slipped by about 20% last week to just over 3.0 million barrels per day—their lowest level in ten weeks. Exports from Pacific and Arctic ports plunged more sharply, while flows out of the Baltic and Black Sea regions declined by a smaller margin.
On a four-week moving average basis, seaborne exports fell to 3.58 million barrels per day but remain relatively high overall. Bloomberg also reports that the volume of Russian crude held in tanker storage has climbed to around 380 million barrels, suggesting that available export capacity currently exceeds buyer demand. It is still too early to determine the sanctions’ full impact on Russia’s oil supplies.
History suggests, however, that Russia will likely find alternative routes and workarounds to continue bringing its crude to global markets.
