Gold (XAU/USD) is holding steady during the North American session on Friday, trading at $4,096 (up 0.53%) after reaching a daily high of $4,101. This rally is fueled by Federal Reserve (Fed) officials opening the door to a December rate cut. Despite mixed US economic data (firm business activity, improved business confidence, but falling consumer sentiment to near record lows due to high prices), dovish comments from New York Fed President John Williams and Governor Stephen Miran significantly boosted December rate cut odds to 71% (from 31% earlier). Conversely, Boston Fed President Susan Collins and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan advocated for maintaining a restrictive policy, finding a December cut “difficult.”
Other US data included September Nonfarm Payrolls doubling estimates to 119K (though unemployment rose slightly to 4.4%), and downward revisions to inflation expectations. The US Dollar Index (DXY) saw modest gains, while US Treasury yields remained steady, and real yields (inversely correlated to Gold) fell, further supporting Gold.
Technically, Gold’s uptrend is resuming. A daily close above $4,100 is crucial for targeting $4,150, then the November 13 peak of $4,245. Failure at $4,100 could lead to declines toward $4,050, the November 18 swing low of $3,998, and the 50-day SMA at $3,981.
