The EUR/USD pair experienced moderate losses on Friday, trading at 1.1504 (down 0.20%) and hitting a two-week low of 1.1491. This occurred as the US Dollar (USD) strengthened amidst mixed US economic data and conflicting signals from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. While US S&P Global PMIs for November were mixed but showed improved business confidence, the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment index dropped to a 2009 low due to consumer frustration over high prices and weakening incomes.
Divergent Fed remarks further influenced markets: New York Fed President John Williams and Governor Stephen Miran hinted at near-term rate cuts, boosting December cut odds to 71%. Conversely, Boston Fed President Susan Collins and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan advocated for maintaining a restrictive policy, arguing against a December cut due to persistent high inflation and the need to assess current policy impact.
Other US data included better-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls (119K vs. 50K est.) but a slight unemployment rate rise to 4.4%. In the Eurozone, ECB officials Joachim Nagel and Luis de Guindos expressed confidence in meeting inflation targets and balanced growth risks, respectively. However, Eurozone manufacturing activity fell back into contraction (PMI 49.7), though services PMI improved (53.1). Technically, EUR/USD’s downtrend is expected to continue if it closes below 1.1500, with key support at 1.1491, 1.1468, and 1.1405.
