Gold (XAU/USD) was largely unchanged on Wednesday, holding near a three-week peak as investors stayed on the sidelines ahead of a critical US House vote to end the longest government shutdown in history. At the time of writing, XAU/USD was trading around $4,130 amid subdued risk appetite.
Later today, the US House of Representatives will vote on a stopgap funding bill designed to keep most federal agencies running through January 30, 2026, with funding for certain departments extended until September 30, 2026. A 60–40 bipartisan Senate approval on Monday has already eased immediate fiscal concerns, but traders remain cautious until the House delivers final sign-off. Once the government reopens, a backlog of delayed economic releases is expected to provide clearer guidance on the Federal Reserve’s policy path.
Despite limited upside momentum, dovish Fed expectations and ongoing geopolitical risks continue to support gold. Recent ADP data showed the US lost an average of 11,250 private-sector jobs in the four weeks to October 25, reinforcing hopes of a December rate cut. At the same time, the monthly ADP report surprised with a 42,000-job gain in October—beating forecasts and reversing September’s 29,000-job loss—and October’s Challenger layoffs hit a 2003-high of 153,074.
A modest rebound in the US dollar has capped gold’s advance. The US Dollar Index (DXY) climbed to about 99.65, snapping a five-day slide after touching a two-week low on Tuesday. Meanwhile, easing tensions over US tariffs have reduced some of gold’s safe-haven appeal, though caution remains as the Supreme Court reviews the legality of Trump-era trade measures.
With a light US economic calendar on Wednesday, trading is expected to stay muted. Investors will look to speeches from Federal Reserve officials for cues on the next move in interest rates.
Technical Analysis: XAU/USD Consolidates Just Below $4,150
On the 4-hour chart, gold is trading in a narrow band, capped by resistance at $4,150 and supported near $4,100. Buyers have consistently stepped in around $4,100, buoyed by a favorable macro backdrop and the current technical setup. A clear break above $4,150 would likely open the door to $4,200 and potentially challenge the all-time high near $4,381. On the downside, a drop below $4,100 would shift focus to the $4,050–$4,030 area, which lines up with the 100-period SMA. The RSI has eased back to about 62 from overbought levels—suggesting a brief pause in momentum—but it remains above neutral, keeping the overall bias bullish as traders eye a possible breakout.
