Commerzbank commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes that while the oil market currently faces a significant surplus of roughly 2.8 million barrels per day (bpd), this oversupply is expected to gradually ease. The reduction will be driven by a combination of rising global demand and falling US output.
According to US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data, US crude production hit a record high of 13.89 million bpd in November 2025. For the current year (2026), output is forecast to average near 13.6 million bpd. However, the EIA anticipates a downward trend, projecting production will fall to 13.52 million bpd by the end of this year, and further to 13.16 million bpd by the end of 2027—a year-over-year decline of roughly 340,000 bpd for 2027.
The EIA attributes this decreasing output to reduced drilling activity caused by persistently low oil prices. The agency forecasts WTI prices to average just $52 per barrel this year and $50 next year, a direct result of current market oversupply. However, the EIA expects that slightly stronger demand growth next year, paired with the decline in US production, will somewhat reduce this surplus.
