Ripple (XRP) is seeing an accelerated rebound, trading above $1.36 on Friday as the market stabilizes from recent volatility. The token has rallied over 21% from its daily low of $1.12. This recovery is supported by consistent institutional interest, with XRP spot ETFs seeing $1.28 million in net inflows on Thursday.
According to data from SoSoValue, this marks the third straight day of positive inflows for US-based XRP ETFs, following $19.5 million on Tuesday and $4.8 million on Wednesday. With total cumulative inflows reaching $1.21 billion and assets under management (AUM) at $888 million, the steady institutional backing suggests a growing bullish sentiment for the asset.
While spot prices attempt a recovery, the XRP derivatives market remains subdued. Futures Open Interest (OI) dropped to $2.40 billion on Friday—marking its lowest point since early January 2025—down from $2.61 billion the previous day.
Since Open Interest serves as a barometer for retail and speculative engagement by tracking the value of active contracts, this persistent decline suggests a lack of conviction. Traders appear hesitant to bet on the sustainability of XRP’s current upward price movement.
XRP’s current rebound is navigating a complex landscape where institutional interest remains modest and retail support—as indicated by derivatives data—is still lacking. Analysts suggest that for a truly optimistic outlook to hold, traders must see a reversal in the declining Open Interest (OI) trends.
On a positive note, the intensity of forced liquidations has cooled significantly. CoinGlass reports a relatively balanced $10 million in long liquidations and $10.5 million in shorts on Friday. This is a dramatic stabilization compared to Thursday’s “long squeeze,” which saw a massive $59 million in long positions wiped out. As price action trends upward, the reduced pressure on long holders provides a much-needed breather for the recovery to potentially find its footing.
XRP is showing signs of recovery above $1.36, yet it remains significantly below its primary trend indicators. The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs (valued at $1.88, $2.05, and $2.22 respectively) are all trending downward, confirming a dominant bearish structure. Furthermore, a long-term descending trendline originating from $3.66 continues to cap price action, with immediate resistance located at $2.18.
Indicators present a mixed but improving picture: the MACD stays below its signal line in negative territory, though a shrinking histogram suggests selling pressure is waning. While the RSI has ticked up to 29, it remains in oversold territory, suggesting that any relief rally may encounter heavy resistance at the aforementioned moving averages.
A decisive close above the $1.40 threshold could spark a faster rally, potentially pushing XRP toward the next resistance level at $1.50. Despite this upside potential, the broader bearish structure maintained by the moving averages cannot be ignored. If the recovery loses steam, XRP remains at risk of a retracement to retest its recent intraday support at $1.12.