The Indian Rupee (INR) opened significantly stronger against the US Dollar (USD) this Tuesday, buoyed by the formalization of a bilateral trade agreement between Washington and New Delhi. The USD/INR pair gapped down to approximately 90.35, marking its lowest point in nearly three weeks.
The deal, confirmed by President Donald Trump on Monday, includes a substantial tariff reduction on Indian imports—from 50% down to 18%. This shift positions Indian exporters competitively against ASEAN and South Asian rivals. In exchange, India has committed to zero tariffs on US imports, a cessation of Russian oil purchases, and a $500 billion procurement plan for American technology, energy, and agricultural goods.+1
Market reaction was immediate; the Nifty50 jumped 3.5% to near 26,330, led by gains in the tech and textile sectors. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) eased to 97.45 amidst a partial federal government shutdown, though it remains supported by the recent nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chairman. Investors are now looking toward the RBI’s monetary policy announcement this Friday
The USD/INR pair is currently trading significantly lower, hovering around 90.35. By sliding below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 91.0816, the pair has adopted a soft near-term bias. The 20-day EMA is beginning to trend downward, suggesting that any price rallies may be capped at this level.
Furthermore, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 43.17. Remaining below the 50 midline confirms that upward momentum is fading. Unless the pair manages a daily close back above the 20-day EMA, the outlook remains tilted toward further downside or consolidation. A move in the RSI above 50 would be required to signal a recovery, whereas a drop toward 30 could intensify bearish pressure.