USD/CHF traded cautiously around the 0.8000 mark in late Asian trade on Wednesday, pressured by a softer dollar amid growing bets that the Federal Reserve may cut rates before year-end. At the time of writing, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)—which measures the greenback against six peers—stood near 99.55, not far above Tuesday’s weekly low of 99.30.
The dollar’s recent decline followed ADP’s report that U.S. employers shed an average of 11,250 jobs per week through late October, fueling expectations of a dovish Fed. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of a 25 bp rate cut to a 3.50%–3.75% range in December have climbed to 68% from 62.4% on Monday.
By contrast, the Swiss franc has held up well, as markets pare back forecasts that the Swiss National Bank will adopt negative rates. SNB officials have publicly expressed confidence that inflation could pick up in the coming quarters.
On the geopolitical front, Bloomberg reports that the U.S. and Switzerland could finalize a trade agreement within two weeks, under which Washington would lower tariffs on Swiss imports to around 15%.
