Germany’s Federal Statistics Office (Destatis) is set to release its Retail Sales report on Friday at 07:00 GMT. Both monthly and annual retail sales for October are projected to hold steady at a 0.2% increase.
Should German Retail Sales surpass forecasts, the EUR/USD pair could recover recent losses and extend its upward trend. However, weaker-than-expected data might have a limited negative effect on the Euro. This is due to recent ECB minutes indicating a preference for stable rates amidst economic uncertainty, with some policymakers even suggesting no further easing is required. Attention will also be on Germany’s Unemployment and flash CPI data later today.
The EUR/USD could also find support as the US Dollar faces headwinds from rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. The CME FedWatch Tool now shows an 87% chance of a 25 basis-point cut next month, up significantly from 39% just last week, with markets also anticipating three additional cuts by late 2026.
Technically, EUR/USD is currently experiencing minor losses around 1.1590, breaking a three-day winning streak. The 14-day RSI above 50 suggests an active market bias. Immediate resistance is at the 50-day EMA (1.1606), followed by the November 13 monthly high (1.1655). Support lies at the nine-day EMA (1.1571), with a further decline potentially testing the three-month low of 1.1468.