EUR/USD recouped its earlier losses during Friday’s European session, trading back up toward 1.1550 after dipping to around 1.1530 earlier in the day. With Eurozone releases offering mixed signals and U.S. official data still offline due to the government shutdown, the pair looks set to finish the week essentially unchanged.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has given back its intraday gains and slipped into negative territory, which has eased some downward pressure on the euro. Yet ongoing risk aversion—fuelled by another slide in Wall Street stocks—may limit any further advances in EUR/USD.
On Thursday, a private‐sector jobs survey showed U.S. payrolls actually fell in October, offsetting the modest pick‐up suggested by Wednesday’s ADP report and reinforcing market bets on a December Fed rate cut. As a result, the dollar extended its retreat from three‐month highs.
Today’s calendar is light. Traders will monitor comments from ECB and Fed officials and await the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer‐sentiment reading, since Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report has been delayed again by the U.S. shutdown.
Euro Price Moves Versus Major Peers
The euro was strongest against the New Zealand dollar today, with small gains versus most other major currencies. The table below shows today’s percentage changes. Rows are base currencies; columns are quotes. For example, the cell at the euro row and dollar column reflects EUR/USD’s move.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | –0.04% | 0.21% | 0.09% | –0.01% | 0.02% | 0.39% | 0.02% | |
| EUR | 0.04% | 0.25% | 0.16% | 0.02% | 0.05% | 0.42% | 0.06% | |
| GBP | –0.21% | –0.25% | –0.12% | –0.25% | –0.20% | 0.18% | –0.19% | |
| JPY | –0.09% | –0.16% | 0.12% | –0.08% | –0.06% | 0.29% | –0.06% | |
| CAD | 0.01% | –0.02% | 0.25% | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.37% | 0.03% | |
| AUD | –0.02% | –0.05% | 0.20% | 0.06% | –0.02% | 0.38% | 0.03% | |
| NZD | –0.39% | –0.42% | –0.18% | –0.29% | –0.37% | –0.38% | –0.36% | |
| CHF | –0.02% | –0.06% | 0.19% | 0.06% | –0.03% | –0.03% | 0.36% |
Daily Market Movers:
- AI-related overvaluation fears have reignited concerns of a tech meltdown, driving a broad equity sell-off and bolstering risk aversion. The lack of fresh U.S. data has capped the dollar’s rally, leaving major FX pairs in a narrow range.
- Revelio’s public-sector jobs report showed a net loss of 9,100 positions in October, led by 22,000 government layoffs, alongside corporate cost cuts and AI‐driven headcount reductions.
- The probability of a December Fed rate cut climbed to 67% from 62%, according to CME’s FedWatch tool—still well below the 90%+ odds seen before last week’s FOMC meeting.
- Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee tempered rate-cut expectations, citing the shutdown’s data gaps and urging caution on policy easing.
- In the euro area, September retail sales unexpectedly contracted, negating earlier upbeat services data and weighing on the euro.
- Germany’s September trade surplus shrank to €15.3 billion—well below forecasts and down from a revised €16.9 billion in August—after imports outpaced exports.
Technical Outlook: Key Resistance at 1.1550
On the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD has bounced off its three-month trough and cleared the critical 1.1545–1.1550 zone (late-October swing lows). Momentum metrics show a pick-up in bullish energy, but prevailing risk-off sentiment may limit a sharp euro rebound.
A decisive close above 1.1550 would confirm a shift in trend and target the 1.1580 area (October 22–23 lows), with further gains eyeing 1.1635 (October 30 high). Support lies in the 1.1530 region; a deeper sell-off could find buyers near 1.1500 and then the measured‐move projection around 1.1440.
