Ethereum (ETH) is currently trading at $2,980, marking a 5% recovery this Friday and erasing losses triggered by post-CPI volatility. This rebound is largely attributed to a shift in derivative market sentiment, as evidenced by the Taker Buy-Sell Ratio climbing from 0.906 to 1.05—its highest point since early December. A ratio above 1 indicates that buying pressure is now dominating perpetual swap trades.
However, the outlook remains mixed. While ETH successfully held support at a symmetrical triangle, it faces potential rejection at the 20-day EMA. Furthermore, cautious sentiment persists among US investors, driven by significant ETH ETF outflows and a declining Coinbase Premium.
Ethereum’s recent momentum is backed by a significant increase in Open Interest (OI), which jumped by 400K ETH on Friday, aligning with the rising Taker Buy-Sell Ratio. However, this bullish derivative activity contrasts with weakening demand from US investors. The Coinbase Premium Index remains below zero, suggesting that Binance traders are leading the buying while US activity remains sluggish. This cautious stance is further evidenced by a six-day outflow streak from US spot ETH ETFs, totaling approximately $630 million since December 11.
On the technical front, ETH recently triggered $56 million in liquidations, primarily affecting short sellers. While the price successfully bounced off a key symmetrical triangle support, it now faces a critical test at the 20-day EMA. To maintain a bullish trajectory toward the $3,470 target, ETH must decisively break above the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs.
On the daily chart, should Ethereum fail to maintain its current position and break below the symmetrical triangle, the next key support level is identified at $2,620.
Momentum indicators show a potential shift; the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently testing both its moving average and the neutral midpoint. Meanwhile, the Stochastic Oscillator is recovering after a stint in oversold territory. If both indicators successfully cross above their neutral thresholds, it would likely confirm a bullish trend, providing the necessary momentum to drive prices higher.