Berikut adalah dua opsi refrasa dalam bahasa Inggris.
Opsi 1: Refrasa Komprehensif (Menjaga detail dan alur aslinya)
US inflation data fell short of consensus estimates and was significantly lower than our own 0.4% month-on-month core forecast. Surprisingly, however, yesterday’s market reaction actually strengthened our short-term bullish view on the dollar. According to ING FX analyst Francesco Pesole, despite the weak CPI print, expectations for Fed rate pricing barely budged, and the dollar swiftly recovered its losses.
Fed pricing remains stable as markets overlook soft inflation data This muted reaction may partly stem from market hesitancy to overinterpret CPI data distorted by the government shutdown. More importantly, it indicates receding concerns regarding threats to the Federal Reserve’s independence. This sentiment is bolstered by perceptions that the criminal probe into Chair Powell is stalling and by resistance from certain GOP lawmakers. We continue to believe there is a strong possibility the dollar will emerge stronger from this situation, as Powell may adopt a more decidedly hawkish stance to demonstrate the Fed’s autonomy.
Simultaneously, the key takeaway from yesterday’s CPI report is the ongoing weakness in goods prices, highlighting once again the minimal impact of tariffs on inflation. Numerous categories exposed to tariffs remained soft, with appliances falling 4.3% MoM, furniture down 0.4%, video and audio equipment dropping 0.4%, and new vehicles remaining flat. This striking trend suggests US retailers are continuing to compress their margins. Ultimately, this data solidifies our conviction in a March Fed rate cut, even if it takes time for the broader market to fully align with this view.
Today, focus shifts to November PPI (with core expected at 0.2% MoM) and retail sales, which are anticipated to be relatively solid. A crowded schedule of Fed speakers—including Paulson, Miran, Kashkari, Bostic, and Williams—will be closely monitored for any subtle hawkish signals in defense of Powell and the institution’s independence. We may also receive a Supreme Court ruling on tariffs today, which is widely expected to be unfavorable to the administration. While such a ruling would likely generate significant political noise from the Trump administration, markets are unlikely to be caught off guard. Our baseline expectation is a modestly positive reaction for the dollar.
