Australian Dollar Climbs on Hauser’s Cautious RBA Comments
The Australian Dollar (AUD) rose for a second straight session against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, buoyed by cautious remarks from Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser. He warned that Australia’s economic recovery began with demand already outpacing potential output—“the tightest recovery since the early 1980s”—and stressed that monetary conditions must remain restrictive to prevent a fresh surge in inflation.
Supporting the AUD further were signs of easing US–China trade tensions. China’s Ministry of Commerce announced a temporary lift on export restrictions for certain “dual-use” materials (including gallium, germanium, antimony and super-hard materials) destined for the United States. The suspension runs through November 27, 2026. Given China’s role as Australia’s biggest trading partner, any improvement there tends to strengthen the AUD.
China’s latest inflation figures also arrived slightly stronger than expected. Consumer prices rose 0.2% year-on-year in October—rebounding from a 0.3% drop the month before—while producer prices fell 2.1%, a marginal improvement on September’s 2.3% decline.
US Dollar Steadies on Shutdown Hope
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against six major peers, steadied around the 99.60 mark. A Bloomberg report indicated that centrist Senate Democrats have agreed to back a deal to reopen shuttered parts of the federal government and fund certain agencies through next year. Under the plan, some departments would receive full-year budgets, others funding only until January 30, and furloughed employees would get back pay.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen cautioned that the shutdown is already harming the economy, while consumer confidence in the University of Michigan’s index plunged to 50.3 in November—the lowest since June 2022. Meanwhile, Challenger’s report showed companies cut over 153,000 jobs in October, the worst October performance in more than 20 years. On the upside, ADP’s private payroll measure surprised with a gain of 42,000 jobs, and the US ISM Services PMI climbed to 52.4, both above forecasts.
In China, October’s trade surplus narrowed to CNY 640.4 billion as exports fell 0.8% year-on-year and imports rose 1.4%. The services PMI slipped to 52.6, while manufacturing PMI eased to 50.6.
Australian Trade Surplus Widens
Back home, Australia reported a wider trade surplus of AUD 3.938 billion in September, beating forecasts. Exports jumped 7.9% month-on-month, reversing an earlier decline, while imports rose 1.1%.
Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Eyes 50-Day EMA
On the daily chart, AUD/USD hovered around 0.6520, consolidating within a sideways rectangle just above its nine-day EMA—signaling short-term bullish momentum. The first hurdle is the 50-day EMA at 0.6535; a clear break above could see the pair test the range’s upper boundary near 0.6630 and then the September high of 0.6707. On the downside, immediate support sits at the psychological 0.6500 level, followed by the lower edge of the rectangle at 0.6470, the August low at 0.6414 and the six-month low at 0.6372.
Currency Heat Map
Below is a summary of today’s percentage moves among major currencies, with each row showing the base currency (left) versus the quote currency (top). The AUD was strongest against the JPY and weakest versus the USD.
Base\Quote │ USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
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USD │ — +0.08 +0.13 +0.37 +0.00 –0.29 +0.03 +0.17
EUR │ –0.08 — +0.05 +0.28 –0.08 –0.37 –0.05 +0.09
GBP │ –0.13 –0.05 — +0.24 –0.13 –0.42 –0.10 +0.04
JPY │ –0.37 –0.28 –0.24 — –0.35 –0.65 –0.32 –0.19
CAD │ +0.00 +0.08 +0.13 +0.35 — –0.30 +0.02 +0.17
AUD │ +0.29 +0.37 +0.42 +0.65 +0.30 — +0.32 +0.47
NZD │ –0.03 +0.05 +0.10 +0.32 –0.02 –0.32 — +0.14
CHF │ –0.17 –0.09 –0.04 +0.19 –0.17 –0.47 –0.14 — This heat map helps visualize which currencies are outperforming others during today’s session.
