The euro extended its rebound against the US dollar on Friday, trading around 1.1575 at the time of writing—the strongest level since October 30. After briefly falling to a three-month low on Wednesday, EUR/USD has gathered upside momentum and is on track to finish the week higher following two weeks of declines.
On the daily chart, the pair remains trapped inside a downward‐sloping parallel channel that began when EUR/USD peaked at 1.1918 on September 17 (its highest since June 2021). The recent rally has pushed prices toward the channel’s upper trendline, which coincides with the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) near 1.1590. A clear break above this region could attract fresh buying and open the way toward the 1.1665–1.1670 area, where the 50- and 100-day SMAs intersect. A sustained move beyond that confluence would signal the first meaningful bullish breakout since mid-September.
On the downside, immediate support lies at this week’s low around 1.1468, close to the channel’s lower boundary. A break below that level could renew selling pressure and target 1.1461, the July 31 low. Technical indicators are turning more constructive: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has bounced off oversold territory and now sits just under 50, suggesting that buying interest is building. At the same time, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is showing early signs of a bullish crossover as its signal lines converge and the histogram moves toward zero.
Overall, as long as EUR/USD holds above 1.1500, the short-term outlook remains positive. A daily close above 1.1600 would confirm the start of a broader recovery following weeks of downward pressure.
