EUR/GBP Price Outlook: Bears Take Control as Momentum Turns Firmly Negative

EUR/GBP is under pressure on Friday, with the euro sliding against a broadly supported British pound. Sterling has stayed firm since the UK Autumn Budget, even as markets heavily price in a Bank of England rate cut at the December 18 meeting. As of writing, EUR/GBP sits around 0.8729—near its lowest level since late October and poised for a third consecutive weekly drop.

From a technical standpoint, EUR/GBP has been under consistent selling pressure ever since it peaked around 0.8865 in mid-November—the highest level so far this year and the strongest since April 2023. The pair has fallen below both the 21-day and 50-day simple moving averages, signaling a softer near-term bias as sellers remain in control.

That said, the 100-day SMA near 0.8711 still provides key support. If EUR/GBP decisively breaks beneath that level, it would raise the likelihood of a deeper pullback toward the 0.8670–0.8650 range.

Momentum indicators also point to a bearish outlook. The MACD histogram has dipped into negative territory around the zero line, indicating that upside momentum is fading. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index sits at 39.8, below its mid-point but above oversold levels—suggesting the downtrend has room to extend but isn’t yet exhausted.

On the upside, the first resistance hurdle is the 50-day SMA at approximately 0.8751, followed by the 21-day SMA around 0.8787. A sustained move above these averages would be needed to restore bullish momentum and potentially target the 0.8865 high again.

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