Ethereum (ETH) is down 3% on Friday, currently trading at $2,730, as strong selling pressure from both retail and institutional US investors in spot and derivatives markets drives its decline. The Ethereum Coinbase Premium Index has plunged to -0.128, its lowest point since February, indicating significant US-led selling. This metric has seen its sharpest five-week decline in 2025, dropping 295 points from its October high. Furthermore, Ethereum ETFs have experienced eight consecutive days of outflows, totaling over $1.28 billion. The broader crypto market downtrend is influenced by a strong US jobs report and concerns about an AI bubble, dampening sentiment for risk assets. If ETH fails to recover the key $2,850 level, it could potentially drop to $2,300.
The prevailing risk-off sentiment continues to impact US institutional interest in Ethereum, leading to significant outflows from US spot Ethereum ETFs. These ETFs have experienced eight consecutive days of outflows, totaling $1.28 billion, marking their most substantial negative streak since their 2024 launch, as reported by Farside Investors. On the derivatives front, US futures traders are reducing leverage; the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Ethereum open interest has fallen back below Binance’s, with 2.13 million ETH versus Binance’s 2.53 million ETH. While overall open interest across all exchanges has decreased by 500,000 ETH in the past 24 hours, a slight weekly increase of 250,000 ETH suggests some traders are positioning for a potential price reversal.
Ethereum’s network activity mirrors its price decline, with active addresses trending downwards. The seven-day moving average of active addresses has fallen over 25% to 356,000, levels not seen since June, according to CryptoQuant. This comes after $407.5 million in Ethereum liquidations over the past 24 hours, predominantly $340.6 million in long liquidations, per Coinglass. Ethereum (ETH) is now attempting to recover the critical $2,850 support level, which represents the average cost basis for accumulation addresses, including whales (10,000-100,000 ETH holders) and smaller holders, as highlighted by CryptoQuant data. Failure to reclaim $2,850 could see ETH decline to $2,300
Investors whose average cost basis is near current levels might try to push Ethereum (ETH) prices back above this point. However, if broader risk-off sentiment persists, they could accelerate selling to mitigate losses, potentially driving ETH down to the $2,300 region, which aligns with the overall average cost basis for all investors. For an uptrend to resume, ETH must break above its Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) and establish them as support. Currently, both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastic Oscillator (Stoch) are in oversold territory, signaling strong bearish momentum but also suggesting the possibility of a short-term price reversal.
